In the paddock, people are wondering why George Russell hasn’t received an offer to extend his contract with the Silver Arrows. In Brackley, the response is that there’s no rush, as the Briton’s contract is under team control—and Verstappen currently doesn’t seem like he wants to leave Red Bull. So what’s the hidden scenario?
There’s an invisible thread connecting Toto Wolff and Max Verstappen. Although the two have never worn the same team colors, Wolff played a key role in the story that led to Verstappen being offered a full-time seat in Formula 1 at just sixteen years old. In June 2014, a bidding war for young Max began, with both Wolff and Helmut Marko involved in raising offers far beyond the expected level. The situation took an unexpected turn when Marko went all-in by offering Verstappen a race seat at Toro Rosso. Many thought it was madness—Wolff withdrew and couldn’t argue with the bold move
Seven years later, the same driver—who was once on the brink of joining Brackley—played the lead role in a scenario that denied Lewis Hamilton what could have been his eighth world title and his seventh with Mercedes. Wolff knew that without Verstappen, Red Bull wouldn’t have been such a threat—and that only deepened the regret over what might have been.
Ten years after that 2014 auction, a crisis erupted at Red Bull involving Christian Horner. As the walls of Milton Keynes trembled like never before, Wolff didn’t wait to stir the pot, hoping to capitalize on the situation and secure Verstappen. Fresh off the shock of Lewis Hamilton’s departure, Toto had the perfect opportunity to strike back by signing Max—but once again, the deal didn’t materialize.
Despite a leadership crisis, Red Bull still managed to help Verstappen clinch his fourth world title in 2024. From Max’s perspective, it made little sense to swap Red Bull for Mercedes, which was far from being a title-contending car—a prediction confirmed by the first part of this season.
A New Chapter in Spring 2025
Red Bull no longer seems like a title contender (barring major surprises), and more importantly, its future competitiveness is under question due to doubts surrounding the performance of its new engine debuting next year. It’s logical to assume that Max and his management have looked around the paddock—flirting is a daily occurrence there—but the doors in Brackley didn’t appear to be as wide open as they had been in the past.
Russell’s Future Will Reveal (Almost) Everything
Mercedes is highly optimistic about its 2026 project, especially regarding the quality of its new power unit. Toto Wolff’s strong defense of current engine regulations—against proposed changes to electric/combustion ratios by Christian Horner—suggests that the Brixworth-based engine department is confident in what they have.
This brings us back to Russell, promoted to team leader following Hamilton’s departure. He has proven himself capable during the first part of this season. So why hasn’t the long-expected contract renewal happened? Mercedes insists everything is on schedule and that no specific timeline was ever promised. Internally, everything is under control.
It’s worth noting that back in 2023, the Hamilton/Russell contract extensions were announced on August 31. So it wouldn’t be unusual for Mercedes to wait until the summer break to finalize Russell’s deal. It’s also important to remember that Mercedes retains management control over Russell, simplifying negotiations—but George’s opinion still plays a key role.
Compared to two years ago, the only new variable is Verstappen’s availability on the driver market. That alone is enough to fuel speculation, theories, and even wild guesses. A Mercedes/Verstappen pairing could offer major advantages for both sides, though it wouldn’t come without complications.
Above all, there’s the philosophy that Wolff and Mercedes have been promoting for years—the project of selecting and developing young talent from their own junior academy, a path completed by both Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli. Bringing Verstappen on board would undermine that philosophy and undo years of developmental work.
The 2026 Car Will Be a Turning Point
Then there’s the financial aspect. Max is currently the highest-paid driver in Formula 1. According to Forbes, his 2024 earnings were $75 million—$60 million in salary and $15 million in bonuses. It’s hard to imagine him switching teams for less. In fact, drivers usually switch for more lucrative deals.
Given the current state of the automotive industry (which is far from its peak), it might not send the right message for Mercedes to commit to spending at least $150 million over two years on one driver. While Daimler only owns 33% of the Formula 1 team, the branding is still Mercedes—and public perception is what counts
